Tessa Quinn
While COVID-19 vaccines have proven effective in reducing the risk of severe illness and hospitalization, some vaccinated individuals still experience breakthrough infections that require hospitalization. The percentage of vaccinated people hospitalized with COVID-19 has been increasing, raising concerns about vaccine effectiveness. However, it's important to understand the underlying mathematics and baseline rates to interpret these percentages accurately. The rise in vaccinated hospitalizations is influenced by increasing vaccination coverage, as a larger proportion of the population is vaccinated. Vaccinated individuals are still much less likely to be hospitalized with COVID-19 compared to the unvaccinated, and vaccination remains the best defense against severe illness and hospitalization.
| Characteristics | Values |
|---|---|
| People with COVID-19 hospitalizations who are fully vaccinated | 14% (June-July 2021) |
| People with COVID-19 hospitalizations who are unvaccinated | 85% (June-September 2021) |
| People with COVID-19 hospitalizations who are under 50 | 10% (June-September 2021) |
| People with COVID-19 hospitalizations who are 65 or older | 69% (June-September 2021) |
| People with COVID-19 hospitalizations who are 49 or younger | 41% (not fully vaccinated) |
| People with COVID-19 hospitalizations who are 65 or older | 29% (not fully vaccinated) |
| People hospitalized with COVID-19 in B.C. who are fully vaccinated | 13% (July 30-August 26, 2021) |
| Deaths related to coronavirus in B.C. among fully vaccinated people | 35% (August 26, 2021) |
| People hospitalized with COVID-19 in Ontario who are fully vaccinated | 2,044 |
| People hospitalized with COVID-19 in Ontario who are unvaccinated | 770 |
| People hospitalized with COVID-19 in Ontario who are partially vaccinated | 174 |
| People in ICUs in Ontario with COVID-19 who are fully vaccinated | 224 |
| People in ICUs in Ontario with COVID-19 who are unvaccinated | 185 |
| People in ICUs in Ontario with COVID-19 who are partially vaccinated | 18 |
| People hospitalized with COVID-19 in P-town who are fully vaccinated | 74% |
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What You'll Learn
- COVID-19 vaccinations offer 95% protection against hospital admission
- Unvaccinated people are up to 60 times more likely to be admitted to intensive care
- Vaccinated people are a larger group, so more end up in hospital
- Older adults are more at risk of severe illness
- Vaccinated people can still get COVID-19 and be hospitalised
COVID-19 vaccinations offer 95% protection against hospital admission
Vaccinations are highly effective in preventing hospital admissions due to COVID-19. According to a study by RIVM, COVID-19 vaccines offer fully vaccinated individuals 95% protection against hospital admission and 97% protection against ICU admission. This means that a vaccinated person with COVID-19 is 20 times less likely to be admitted to the hospital and 33 times less likely to be admitted to the ICU compared to an unvaccinated individual.
The RIVM study analysed data from the Netherlands during the periods when the Alpha and Delta variants were most prevalent. Between July 4 and August 12, 2021, when the Delta variant was dominant, 15,222 people with COVID-19 were admitted to hospitals. Of these patients, 88% were unvaccinated, 7.4% were partially vaccinated, and only 4.6% were fully vaccinated. The study also found that the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine, the most commonly administered vaccine in the Netherlands, provided more than 98% protection against hospital and ICU admission for fully vaccinated individuals under 70 years old. This age group had a 50 times lower risk of hospitalisation and ICU admission compared to their unvaccinated counterparts.
While COVID-19 vaccinations greatly reduce the risk of severe illness and hospitalisation, some fully vaccinated individuals may still experience breakthrough infections that require hospitalisation. Factors such as age, comorbidities, and the time elapsed since vaccination can influence the likelihood of hospitalisation among vaccinated individuals. Older adults, especially those with certain medical conditions, are more susceptible to severe illness and may require a third dose or booster shot for added protection.
It is important to note that vaccine protection can wane over time, and new variants may impact the effectiveness of the vaccines. Therefore, staying up to date with the recommended vaccination schedule is crucial to maintaining optimal protection against COVID-19. The CDC recommends that most adults aged 18 and older receive the 2024-2025 COVID-19 vaccine, even if they have previously been vaccinated or infected.
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Unvaccinated people are up to 60 times more likely to be admitted to intensive care
Vaccination is a critical tool in the fight against COVID-19. While the vaccines do not offer absolute protection, they significantly reduce the risk of severe illness, hospitalization, and death. However, the recent surge in hospitalizations among vaccinated individuals has raised concerns and prompted further investigation.
The disparity in hospitalization rates between vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals is influenced by several factors. Firstly, it's important to consider the size of each group. In the United States, as of September 30, 2021, 56% of the population, 67% of adults, and 83% of the elderly were fully vaccinated. This means that the unvaccinated group, constituting 44% of the population, is still a substantial portion and contributes significantly to the overall hospitalizations.
Moreover, age plays a crucial role in hospitalization rates. Older adults are more vulnerable to severe illness from COVID-19, and as of September 30, 2021, individuals aged 65 and older made up 25% of those fully vaccinated. However, within the hospitalized group, 69% of fully vaccinated patients with breakthrough COVID-19 infections were 65 and older. This disproportionate representation suggests that older adults, despite being vaccinated, are still at a higher risk of severe illness.
While the exact reasons behind the hospitalizations of vaccinated individuals are not fully understood, it is clear that vaccination status significantly impacts the likelihood of severe illness and hospitalization. A study by the United Kingdom's Intensive Care National Audit and Research Centre (ICNARC) revealed a striking difference in admission rates. Unvaccinated individuals in their 60s were hospitalized at a rate of 37.3 per 100,000 per week, compared to just 0.6 cases per 100,000 per week for vaccinated individuals in the same age group. This translates to a relative risk that is about 60 times higher for the unvaccinated population.
Additionally, the benefits of vaccination extend beyond the general population. Pregnant women who contract COVID-19 face increased risks, including a sevenfold higher risk of death compared to pregnant women without the virus. Vaccination significantly reduces these risks, and booster shots further enhance protection. Heart failure patients also benefit from vaccination, as unvaccinated or partially vaccinated individuals in this group are three times more likely to die from COVID-19-related illness than their fully vaccinated and boosted counterparts.
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Vaccinated people are a larger group, so more end up in hospital
It is important to note that COVID-19 vaccines offer significant protection against severe illness and hospitalisation. However, it is still possible for fully vaccinated individuals to be hospitalised with breakthrough COVID-19 infections. The key factor to consider when interpreting these numbers is the relative sizes of the vaccinated and unvaccinated populations.
In the United States, as of September 30, 2021, 56% of the total population, 67% of adults, and 83% of the elderly were fully vaccinated against COVID-19. This means that unvaccinated individuals made up a smaller share of the population (44%) but accounted for the vast majority (85%) of COVID-19 hospitalisations.
As vaccination rates increase, the absolute number of vaccinated individuals hospitalised with COVID-19 may also rise, even though the rate of total hospitalisations decreases. This is because there are simply more vaccinated people, and the risk of infection and severe illness is never reduced to zero, even with a highly effective vaccine.
For example, consider a scenario where there are 10,000 people, and no one is vaccinated. In this case, 200 people may need to be hospitalised. Now, imagine that vaccination coverage increases to 10%. With the same group of 10,000 people, there would be 181 hospitalisations, with 1 of them being a vaccinated person. At 50% vaccination coverage, the number of hospitalisations drops to 105, with 5 of them being vaccinated people. When 90% of the population is vaccinated, the number of hospitalisations falls to 29, with 9 of them being vaccinated. As you can see, as vaccination coverage increases, the absolute number of vaccinated individuals hospitalised may rise, but the overall rate of hospitalisations decreases.
Additionally, age plays a significant role in COVID-19 hospitalisations. Older adults are more likely to be fully vaccinated and are also more susceptible to severe illness from COVID-19. Therefore, they may be overrepresented in breakthrough COVID-19 hospitalisations.
In summary, while vaccinated people ending up in the hospital may seem concerning, it is important to consider the larger context. Vaccinated individuals make up a larger proportion of the population, and the rate of total hospitalisations is decreasing as vaccination coverage increases. Vaccination remains the best way to prevent disease, curb the spread of the virus, and reduce hospital admissions.
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Older adults are more at risk of severe illness
While people who are fully vaccinated against COVID-19 have a significantly lower risk of severe illness, some hospitalizations and fatalities have been documented among fully vaccinated individuals with COVID-19 breakthrough infections. According to a CDC MMWR study, fully vaccinated individuals accounted for 14% of COVID-19 hospitalizations in June and July.
In the United States, as of September 30, 2021, 56% of the population, 67% of adults, and 83% of the elderly were fully vaccinated against COVID-19. Unvaccinated individuals made up 44% of the population but the vast majority (85%) of hospitalizations due to COVID-19. From June to September 2021, the majority (69%) of breakthrough COVID-19 hospitalizations were among people aged 65 and older, while only 10% were under 50 years old.
Older adults are more likely to experience severe illness from COVID-19. More than 81% of COVID-19 deaths occur in individuals over 65, with a death rate 97 times higher than those aged 18-29. The risk of severe illness increases with the number of underlying medical conditions. Chronic illnesses are more common with age, and certain conditions are more prevalent in older adults, such as obesity, high cholesterol, and high blood pressure. Additionally, the body undergoes changes with age, such as artery stiffening and decreased pancreatic metabolic function, which can increase the risk of hypertension and insulin resistance, respectively.
To protect older adults from severe illness, hospitalization, and death, the CDC recommends the 2024-2025 COVID-19 vaccine for most adults aged 18 and older, especially those 65 and older or with a high risk of severe COVID-19. The CDC also advises older adults and those with specific comorbidities to receive a third dose or booster shot.
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Vaccinated people can still get COVID-19 and be hospitalised
However, no vaccine is 100% effective, and there are rare cases where vaccinated individuals may still contract COVID-19 and experience severe symptoms requiring hospitalisation. Several factors contribute to this. Firstly, vaccine protection is not permanent and decreases over time, especially for older adults and those with certain comorbidities. As such, it is recommended that these individuals receive booster shots to maintain their protection.
Additionally, the proportion of vaccinated individuals hospitalised with COVID-19 may be influenced by the overall vaccination rate in a population. As more people get vaccinated, the absolute number of hospitalisations among vaccinated individuals may increase, even though the rate of hospitalisation decreases. This is a matter of statistics and probabilities, as explained by statisticians and biostatisticians. For example, in a group of 10,000 people, when no one was vaccinated, 200 people needed to be admitted to the hospital. However, with 90% vaccination coverage, only 29 people required hospitalisation, of whom nine were fully vaccinated.
It is also important to consider the age distribution of vaccinated individuals hospitalised with COVID-19. In the United States, as of September 30, 2021, 25% of those fully vaccinated were 65 and older, but this age group represented 69% of the fully vaccinated hospitalised with breakthrough COVID-19 cases. Older adults are generally more susceptible to severe illness from COVID-19, which may contribute to their higher representation in breakthrough hospitalisations.
While vaccinated people can still be hospitalised with COVID-19, it is essential to emphasise that the risk is significantly lower compared to unvaccinated individuals. Unvaccinated people are up to 60 times more likely to require intensive care due to COVID-19, according to figures from the ICNARC. Therefore, getting vaccinated remains the best way to prevent severe disease, reduce the spread of the virus, and decrease hospital admissions.
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Frequently asked questions
The percentage of vaccinated people with COVID-19 in the hospital is increasing. However, it is important to note that the rate of total hospitalizations is decreasing. Vaccination coverage rises as more people are vaccinated, and the percentage of vaccinated patients also rises. Vaccination offers 95% protection against hospital admission, and it is very unlikely that a vaccinated person will need to be hospitalized.
There could be several reasons why vaccinated people end up in the hospital with COVID-19. One reason could be that the vaccine does not work as effectively in some individuals. Other factors, such as age and underlying health conditions, may also play a role.
No, unvaccinated people are more likely to be hospitalized with COVID-19 than vaccinated people. Unvaccinated people are up to 60 times more likely to require intensive care treatment for COVID-19 than those who have been vaccinated.
The percentage of vaccinated people hospitalized with COVID-19 varies depending on the population and the vaccination coverage. In one example, when 50% of the population was vaccinated, 25 out of 2525 hospitalized individuals were vaccinated. In another example, when 90% of the population was vaccinated, 9 out of 29 hospitalized individuals were vaccinated.
Age is highly correlated with breakthrough hospitalizations in vaccinated individuals. Older adults, especially those aged 65 and above, are more likely to be hospitalized with COVID-19, even if they are fully vaccinated. This may be due to the increased risk of severe illness from COVID-19 in older adults.
